Jorge Fernández Gómez, Macarena Larrea Basterra, Stephanía Mosquera-López
The Palgrave Handbook on Geopolitics of Brazil and the South Atlantic pp 283-314. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapure
Abstract
The arrival of Lula da Silva to power in January 2023 set in motion a profound change in Brazil’s political landscape following the Bolsonaro era, with relevant implications for the energy strategy and energy geopolitics. Brazil’s new approach to energy geopolitics attempts to find an equilibrium between (1) a critical view of West position (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war, global economics); (2) its relationship with China, Russia, the Middle East, etc.; (3) putting an end to Bolsonaro’s isolationism; (4) strengthening its role as leader in energy integration in South America and within the South Atlantic region; and (5) solving energy independence and other local energy and environmental issues.
This chapter focuses on the following research question: What scenarios does Brazil face in terms of energy geopolitics following the change in leadership in January 2023? To answer this question, we first look at Brazil’s energy policy (including its approach to the energy transition, renewable energy, and energy security) and geopolitical stand as a leader in South America, a key player in the South Atlantic region and within the BRICS group of nations.
We then conduct a SWOT analysis of Brazil’s position in energy geopolitics in 2023. Strengths include its diplomatic leadership and economic size, renewable energy and biofuel potential, fossil fuel, and critical mineral reserves. Weaknesses stem from economic disparities, limited energy interconnections, a fragmented energy system, high dependence on hydro resources, and barriers to investment and financing large infrastructures. Opportunities arise from Brazil’s role in global climate change governance, a strong position in critical minerals and rare earths, its technological leadership in South America, increased cooperation at a regional level, and being a key player in global geopolitics and a leader of the Global South. Threats include forest cover fragmentation, social and political unrest, democratic regression and corruption, regional conflicts and lack of integration, potentially increasing economic isolation from the West, ongoing global oil and gas market changes, and a slow transition away from fossil fuels.
Finally, we identify potential future scenarios related to how cooperation schemes and economic and energy links with the East (China, Middle East, Russia) and West are defined over the next few years.
